Without any conspiracy theories, looking objectively at the current situation, we can expect serious problems in the supply of products made in China in the coming months. Without exception, all major manufacturers are affected to a greater or lesser extent by the epidemic. Although production has partially restarted, the current capacity will not be sufficient to serve the market.
For the time being, most manufacturers have not yet assessed when production might return to normal, but it is already likely that the previous schedule will be overturned. At present, those with a Plan B and sufficient spare capital to survive stand a better chance.
Xiaomi, Apple, Realme, TCL are already feeling the shortage, if the epidemic is not contained in South Korea, Samsung and LG could be in trouble. Although the European factories can help out the parent company to some extent, they will not be able to produce for long due to a lack of raw materials. The fact is that the virus is spreading, and various restrictions have been imposed in several countries. Fortunately, online trade has not yet been drastically affected, but in China and Italy, efforts are already under way to limit the outbreak by closing physical shops.
The epidemic is also affecting the automotive industry and all companies that depend on China for raw materials, parts or even labour. Tourism, the stock market and, slowly, all sectors are suffering. Mi jelenleg csak annyit érzékelhetünk – ha visszatérünk az okostelefonokhoz – hogy the European launch of the Mi 10 series – és ezzel együtt az idei MWC-t is Barcelonában – lefújták, bő egy hónappal később, will be held on 27 March in an online event. Test examples of this year's flagship duo have already been sent to some regions, and you can watch them now on YouTube. We hope it will arrive soon and we can show it to you.
What can be concluded in the coming months?
Xiaomi has changed its strategy this year with the re-launch of the Poco brand, the strengthening of the Redmi series, and plans to sell more Mi models in India. In the past years, India was mostly selling Redmi models and their India-specific versions, with the Mi 9 series, for example, not available at all. At the end of February, there were reports that the Mi MIX Alpha, the Mi 10 series, was also expected in Xiaomi's second largest market.
But global supply remains an issue. We don't know anything about the international fate of the Poco X2, nor the Redmi K30. And there's been a deep silence about the K30 Pro 5G that's been embedded for a week and a half. Bár jövő héten (március 12.) bemutatkozik a Redmi Note 9 széria ( a Redmi Note 9 Pro biztosan), annak európai forgalmazása várhatóan újfent csúszni fog, miközben a piacon lévő modellekből egyre nehezebben érhető el készlet. A Mi 9 és Mi 9 SE gyártása rég befejeződött, a Redmi K20 Pro / Mi 9T Pro is leállt már, a Redmi 8, Redmi Note 8 sem várható március második felétől. Szépen leapad a készlet, és az európai piac választék nélkül maradhat. Az indiai gyártás szépen hangzik, ha az ottani beszállítók és dolgozók nem veszélyeztetettek – és nem lesz szükség karanténra. Ha optimistán állunk hozzá, és ha sikerül visszaszorítani a járványt, akkor is hónapokra van szüksége a leállított bányáknak, gyáraknak, mire visszaáll a normál termelés, utolérik magukat a gyártók. Azt viszont érdemes szem előtt tartani, hogy több modell is bérgyártásban készül, melyre kvóták, és precíz időbeosztások vannak, nem lehet bármikor egy adott modellt legyártani, ha előtte fél tucat korábban bejelentkezett gyártó termékeit kell legyártani.
Xiaomi and TCL are also forecasting a significant decline in TV production, with neither manufacturing capacity, nor manpower, nor raw materials available. In fact, the two companies assemble several models from common parts, i.e. some Xiaomi models have TCL panels.
And because Xiaomi has a complete smart home ecosystem, it faces problems with several products (e.g. in its air conditioning department). Realme is in a similar situation, after production of its latest mobile phone models (e.g. Realme C3 and 5i) has also stalled.
Currently, most of the brands mentioned above have restarted production in China. Although their functionality is still around 35-50%. In addition, during this period, the price of some components has increased, which may result in a price increase of the final product. The problem is more pervasive than previously thought, as both online and offline retailers are stockpiling their inventories, fearing that the supply chain will suffer further damage.
So directly or indirectly, all smartphone manufacturers are dependent on China, and as the virus has not been stopped from spreading, it is feared that the restrictions will affect all areas, and in time the entire economy will suffer. First, there will be production difficulties, then price rises, and with that, demand is likely to fall. So the Mi 10's European debut is a given, just make sure you stock the market. Do not expect a price drop, be happy if there is a choice.
Several manufacturers, including Xiaomi, are also helping to protect themselves, with face masks to help Italians and others outside China. Let's hope for the best! After all, we can be wrong :)
